Analytical test

class: title-slide

# Animal Rescues in the West Midlands

### Head Data Scientist Interview

### <img src="./assets/img/crop.png" alt="Mainard icon" height="40px" />  Dr Chris Mainey
<br><br>

.footnote[Presentation and code available: **https://github.com/chrismainey/BSICB_interview**]

.art_cap[R generative art - inspired by Antonio Sánchez Chinchón - @aschinchon]

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__End 30 seconds__!

Say hi - introduce myself

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Presentation on github with references and code, share afterwards

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# Overview

## What? When? 
+ Dataset from WMFS detailing animal rescues
+ __No data dictionary__, but clear date, District & Ward, free-text description
+ __Dates:__ 02/04/2013 - 31/03/2023 (10 years, likely fiscal years)
+ Numbers are too small to distinguish differences at ward level over time

]

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<img src="./outputs/district_fyear.png" alt="stacked line chart for Coventry, Solihull, Birmingham,
Walsall, Sandwell, Wolverhampton showing increases in pet rescues over 10 years 2013 / 2023"  class="center"/>
]

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+ Largest numbers seen in Birmingham
+ Reasonable to assume animal population relates to human population
+ Weighted with ONS population projections:
  + Coventry lowest, Birmingham average
  + Dudley highest

]
<br>

.pull-right-half[
<img src="./outputs/raw_vs_weighted.png" alt="Bar charts comparing animal rescues per 1000 population in Coventry,
Solihull, Birmingham, Walsall, Sandwell, Wolverhampton against absolute numbers. Birmingham higher numbers but is average in proportion to it's population." class="center"/>
]

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# Regional distribution
<centre>
<img src="./outputs/ward_map2.png" alt="Map of wards in Coventry, Solihull, Birmingham,
Walsall, Sandwell, Wolverhampton showing total number of animal rescues over fiscal year 2013 - 2023"  class="center"/>

+ __Ladywood__ - Birmingham (25)
+ __St. Michael's__ - Coventry (18)
+ Including Boardsley Green, Nechells, Perry Bar, Soho & Jewellery quarter, Aston, Bartley Green
+ Sutton Trinity - Birmingham(17), Brierly Hill - Dudley(15)

]
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.pull-right[
<centre>
<img src="./outputs/anim_district_year2.gif" alt="Animated map of districts in Coventry, Solihull, Birmingham,
Walsall, Sandwell, Wolverhampton showing number of animal rescues per fiscal year 2013 - 2023" height="320" class="center"/>
<br>

<img src="./outputs/anim_wards_year2.gif" alt="Animated map of wards in Coventry, Solihull, Birmingham,
Walsall, Sandwell, Wolverhampton showing number of animal rescues per fiscal year 2013 - 2023"  height="320" class="center"/>
</centre>
]

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# Timeseries problem

+ When decomposed: clear increasing trend, annual seasonality, suitable stationarity
+ Examined as both monthly and rolling periods (4-month chosen)
+ Best performance with ARIMA, exponential smoothing worked well.
+ 23/24 = 199, 2024/25 = 208, 2025/26 = 2018  - __625 over three years__

]

.pull-right[
<centre>
<img src="./outputs/time_series_components.png" alt="Seasonal timeseries component for animal rescue data in West Midlands, showing trend annual seasonality and error"  height="620" class="center"/>
</centre>
]

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# NLP / text mining

+ Tokenised to words using `tidytext`, stopwords and numerics removed
+ __Cats are always getting trapped / stuck!__
+ Dogs next, and birds surprisingly high, with lots of alternatives
+ Alternatives (e.g. dog, puppy, terrier etc.) mapped with function.
+ Cats highest >3x higher than others in Birmingham
+ Horses comparatively highest in Walsall.

]
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.pull-right[
<centre>
<img src="./outputs/animals_by_region.png" alt="Bar chart showing animal type by region for animal rescues in the West Midlands, showing 'cat' to be most common, but significantly so in Birmingham"  height="610" class="center"/>
</centre>

]

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# What else?

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+ __No explicit question. What are the questions?__

+ __Local (District) forecasts - help planning of resources__

+ __Times in the data:__
  + Time of day analysis
  + Time taken for rescues
  + Is time associated with particular types of rescue/animal?

+ __Compare to other callout data__
  + Relative time taken
  + Effects on availability / opportunity cost

+ __Augment future data capture:__
  + Record animal distinctly
  + Equipment needed
  + Time taken

]

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<br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<center>
<h1>Any questions?</h1>
</center>
]